Ishishini lezixhobo zombane nezamandla kwihlabathi liphela lingena kwinqanaba elibalulekileyo lokutshintsha ngo-2026. Utshintsho lwamandla avuselelekayo kunye nokuhlaziywa kwegridi kuqhuba utshintsho olukhulu kwisakhiwo. Eli candelo lixhamla ekukhuleni okuqinileyo, okukhuthazwa kukwamkelwa kwamandla acocekileyo kunye nemfuno yombane ekhulayo. Sekunjalo likwajongene nemingeni ekhulayo, kubandakanya imida yobonelelo, uhlengahlengiso lwemithetho, kunye notshintsho olukhawulezayo lwetekhnoloji. Ngokusebenzisa iNgxelo yamva nje ye-IEA Electricity 2026, idatha yezerhafu yehlabathi, kunye nophuhliso lwakutshanje kwishishini, le ngxelo ihlola iindlela eziphambili, imingeni ephambili, kunye nezikhokelo zexesha elizayo kwishishini kulo nyaka.
Ulawulo Oluvuselelekayo Luyaqina, Lukhuthaza Ukuphuculwa Kwezixhobo Ezikumgangatho Ophezulu
Unyaka ka-2026 ngunyaka wembali yomxube wamandla wehlabathi: izixhobo ezivuselelekayo zidlule ngokusemthethweni amalahle njengomthombo wombane omkhulu kwihlabathi, nto leyo ephelisa ulawulo lwamalahle olusele lufikelele kwinkulungwane, ngokwe-IEA. I-PV yelanga kunye nomoya ngoku zimalunga ne-20% yokuveliswa kwamandla kwihlabathi liphela. I-PV yelanga lelona candelo likhula ngokukhawuleza, apho ukuveliswa kwamandla ngonyaka ka-2025 kufike kwi-620 TWh—inyuke kakhulu ukusuka kwi-450 TWh ngo-2024. Kulindeleke ukuba idlule amandla omoya, enyukliya, kunye namanzi kungekudala.
Olu lwando lukhawulezayo oluvuselelekayo luqhuba uphuculo kwicandelo lezixhobo zamandla, ludlulela ngaphaya kwemfuno esisiseko ukuya kwizisombululo ezisebenzayo nezikrelekrele. Izixhobo zothumelo lwamandla avuselelekayo (i-HVDC) zisombulula iimfuno zothumelo lwamandla avuselelekayo kumgama omde nokulahleka okuncinci. Imarike yayo yehlabathi ikhule ngaphezulu kwama-25% ngo-2026. Ii-inverters ezikrelekrele—ezinolawulo oluqhagamshelwe kwigridi kunye nokuhambelana kokugcinwa kwamandla—ngoku zisemgangathweni kwiiprojekthi ezintsha zelanga nezomoya. Okuphawulekayo kukuba, ukuthunyelwa kwe-UHV yaseTshayina kunye nezixhobo zothumelo ze-DC eziguquguqukayo kunyuke ngama-81.5% unyaka nonyaka kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala zika-2026, zikhokela uthotho lobonelelo oluphezulu lwehlabathi.
Ukwanda Kwemfuno Ezinzileyo Kubeka Ukuqina Kwekhonkco Lobonelelo Kwingqwalasela
Imfuno yombane yehlabathi ikhula ngamandla, inyuka nge-3.7% ngo-2026—phantse iphindwe kabini kunezinga lokukhula kwemfuno yamandla iyonke. I-IEA icaphula umbane kwimizi-mveliso, ukwandiswa kweziko ledatha le-AI, ukunyuka kokungena kwe-EV, kunye nomthwalo ophezulu wokupholisa ehlotyeni njengezinto eziphambili. Amazwe asakhasayo aza kuxhasa phantse i-80% yemfuno entsha yombane kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2030. Amazwe aphuhlileyo nawo abona ukusetyenziswa kwamandla okubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo, kunye ne-AI kunye nemveliso ephezulu njengeenjini ezintsha zokukhula.
Le mfuno iqhubekayo iqinise ukunikezelwa kwezinto ezibalulekileyo. Iitransformer, iiswitchgear, kunye neentambo ze-high-voltage zihlala zinqongophele, kunye namaxesha okukhokela ezinye iimveliso eziphambili athatha iinyanga ezi-8-12. Abavelisi bayandisa amandla kodwa bajongene nemiqobo: amaxabiso ethusi kunye ne-aluminium ayatshintshatshintsha ngaphezulu kwama-20% ngonyaka, kwaye ukuphazamiseka kwezinto kwenzeka ngamanye amaxesha. Ukuze zilungelelanise, iinkampani ezininzi zikhawulezisa uyilo olwahlukeneyo lwe-"China+N". Zitshintshela imveliso ethile eMzantsi-mpuma Asia ngelixa ziqinisa uthotho lobonelelo oluphambili lwaseTshayina ukunciphisa imingcipheko yezopolitiko kunye neyemarike. Imakethi yezixhobo zokuhambisa amandla kunye nokusasazwa kwamandla kwihlabathi liphela ka-2026 ixabisa i-USD 142.8 yeebhiliyoni, kunye neetransformer ezibalelwa kwi-38.2% - nto leyo egxininisa indima yazo ephambili.
Okuphawulekayo kukuba, ukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zamandla eTshayina kukhule ngokuqhubekayo kangangeminyaka emithathu ilandelelana. Ukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zamandla ngo-2025 kufikelele malunga ne-374 yeebhiliyoni zeedola zaseMelika (malunga ne-2.6 trillion yuan), ukunyuka kwe-26% ngonyaka—amanqaku eepesenti ezili-10.4 aphezulu kunonyaka odlulileyo. Iitransformers zikhokela ukukhula, zenza malunga ne-41% yazo zonke izinto ezithunyelwa ngaphandle. Olu tshintsho luhambelana nomgaqo-nkqubo weminyaka emithathu waseTshayina wokuzinzisa eli candelo, lijolise ekukhuleni kwengeniso yonyaka ye-6% yezixhobo zamandla zemveli ngo-2026.
Ukuthengiswa kweBattery Storage Kuyavuthwa, Ukuguquguquka kweGrid
Ukuhla kweendleko zokugcina iibhetri kuye kwakhawulezisa ukuhlanganiswa kwayo kwiinkqubo zamandla. Emva kokuhla kwe-27% ngonyaka ngo-2025, iindleko zokugcina iiyure ezine zizinzile kwi-$78-80/MWh ngo-2026. Amaxabiso eepakethe zebhetri ezisetyenziswayo asondele kwi-$80/kWh—malunga ne-50% esezantsi kunango-2023. Le nzuzo yeendleko yenza iinkqubo zokugcina amandla ebhetri (i-BESS) zikhuphisane nezityalo ezivelisa igesi kwiimarike ezininzi, nto leyo eqhuba ukukhula okuqinileyo kumandla okugcina amandla elanga kwihlabathi liphela.
Uphuhliso lwetekhnoloji luyanda iimeko zokusetyenziswa kwebhetri yokugcina. Iibhetri zeLithium iron phosphate (LFP) ziyasetyenziswa kakhulu, nto leyo enyusa uxinano lwamandla kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kokudibanisa. Imfuno iyanda nakwizixhobo ezixhasayo: iinkqubo zolawulo lwebhetri (BMS), ulawulo lwegridi ekrelekrele, kunye nezixhobo zokulawula amaza. Ezi zibalulekile ekujongeni ukuguquguquka kwamandla avuselelekayo kunye nokuguquguquka kwawo. Ngo-2026, itekhnoloji yebhetri yokuhamba kolwelo nayo iqhubela phambili ngokukhawuleza, kunye nophuhliso kwizixhobo ze-electrode kunye neefomyula ze-electrolyte ezinciphisa iindleko kunye nokuphucula uzinzo—ukuxhasa ukugcinwa kwexesha elide kokuhlanganiswa okukhulu okuvuselelekayo. I-IEA igxininisa ukuba ukugcinwa kwebhetri, kunye nokuphuculwa kwegridi, kuya kuvula amandla apheleleyo eemveliso ezivuselelekayo, kunye nomthamo wokugcina wehlabathi oza kwanda kakhulu ukuhlangabezana nomgomo wamandla okukhupha umbane ophantsi we-50% ka-2030.
Iinguqu zeNgingqi zahlukile, kunye nabaThumeli bamanye amazwe baseAsia abakhokela indlela
Imarike yezixhobo zamandla zehlabathi ka-2026 ibonisa umahluko ocacileyo kummandla. I-Asia isaqhubeka nokuba yeyona nto iphambili ekunikezelweni nasekufuneni: Ukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zamandla eTshayina kunyuke nge-32.7% unyaka nonyaka kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala. UMbindi Mpuma, uMntla Melika, kunye neYurophu zinemfuno enkulu yezinto ezine-voltage ephantsi kunye nee-transformers zokusasazwa. Ukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zombane eJapan kunyuke nge-11.3% unyaka nonyaka, kuqhutywa zizixhobo ezinxulumene ne-semiconductor, kunye nokuthunyelwa okunamandla kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia (eMalaysia, eVietnam).
EYurophu, icebo le-EU elithi "Fit for 55" likhawulezisa ukupheliswa kwamandla ombane asebenzisa amalahle, linyusa imfuno yezixhobo zegridi ezikrelekrele kunye nokugcinwa kwamandla. Imakethi ye-EV yalo mmandla ikwaqhuba imfuno: Amazwe ayi-9 aseYurophu athengise izithuthi ezintsha zamandla ezingama-207,000 ngoJanuwari 2026, ukunyuka kwama-23.1% unyaka nonyaka, kunye nezinga lokungena kwama-29.5%. IJamani, iFransi, i-Itali, kunye neSpain zandise okanye zandisa inkxaso-mali ye-EV, zikhuthaza ngakumbi imfuno yeziseko zophuhliso zokutshaja kunye nokuxhasa izixhobo zamandla.
EMantla Melika, i-US ikhokela ukusasazwa kwebhetri kwihlabathi liphela ngenxa yeTyala loTyalo-mali (i-ITC). Nangona kunjalo, imiyalelo yendawo kunye nemiqathango yorhwebo zinyusa iindleko zezixhobo. Abaqhubi begridi abathathu abakhulu base-US bavunyelwe ukuba banikwe i-$75 yeebhiliyoni ekwandiseni uthumelo. Baza kwakha imigca ye-voltage ephezulu kakhulu ye-765kV, eyandisa ukuya kwiimayile ezili-10,000—umthamo wangoku ophindwe kane. Oku kujongana neziseko zophuhliso ezidala: i-70% yeetransformers kunye nemigca yothumelo zingaphezulu kweminyaka engama-25 ubudala, kwaye i-60% yee-circuit breakers zingaphezulu kwama-30. Okwangoku, ukusetyenziswa kwamandla kweziko ledatha ye-AI okukhulayo—okuqikelelwa ukuba kuza kufikelela kwi-6.7%-12.0% yombane wase-US ngo-2028—kuqhuba ukuphuculwa kwegridi kunye nemfuno yezixhobo, kunye ne-800VDC kunye nokupholisa ulwelo kuvela njengetekhnoloji ebalulekileyo.
Iimarike ezisakhasayo kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia nase-Afrika ziindawo ezintsha zokukhula. Ukwanda kwezixeko kunye nokufakelwa kombane kuqhuba imfuno yezixhobo ezisisiseko zokuhambisa nokuhambisa. Nangona kunjalo, utyalo-mali olungonelanga lwegridi kunye nomthamo wobugcisa kuthintela ukukhula.
Imbono Yexesha Elide: Utyalo-mali lweGrid kunye noVuselelo luqhuba uKhulo oluZinzileyo
I-IEA iqikelela ukuba amandla akhutshwa kancinci—akhokelwa zii-revwables kunye neenyukliya—aza kufikelela kwi-50% yokuveliswa kwamandla kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2030, ukusuka kwi-42% ngo-2025. Oku kufuna ukonyuka kwe-50% kutyalo-mali lwegridi yehlabathi jikelele ngonyaka, ukusuka kwi-$400 yeebhiliyoni zangoku. Kuya kudala imfuno eqhubekayo yezixhobo zamandla ezisebenzayo, ezihambelanayo, nezikrelekrele kumacandelo okuhlala, orhwebo, kunye namashishini. Umngeni ophambili usasele: ukwakhiwa kwegridi kusemva kophuhliso lomthombo wamandla, kunye neeprojekthi ezingaphezu kwe-250 GW ze-revwable, zokugcina amandla, kunye neziko ledatha ezilindele ukunxibelelana kwihlabathi liphela.
Ubuchule bobuchwephesha buya kuba ngundoqo wokoyisa imiqobo. Ukwenziwa kwedijithali, ubukrelekrele, kunye nokulima zezona ndlela ziphambili zokuphucula izixhobo. Ubuchwepheshe begridi ekrelekrele, amawele edijithali, kunye nezixhobo ezingathathi cala kwikhabhoni ziya kubona ukusetyenziswa okubanzi. Ukuthobela ukusebenza kakuhle kwamandla ehlabathi kunye nemigangatho yokukhupha ikhabhoni kuya kuba yimfuneko yokufikelela kwimarike. Oku kutyhala iinkampani ukuba zikhawulezise ukwenziwa kwemveliso eluhlaza kunye nokwakha iinkqubo zokubala i-carbon footprint. Inkxaso yemigaqo-nkqubo yaseTshayina—kuquka imboni kunye nokwandiswa kwemarike—ikwaxhasa ukukhula kweshishini lehlabathi.
Into ephambili yokuthatha
Unyaka ka-2026 ngunyaka obalulekileyo kushishino lwezixhobo zombane nezamandla kwihlabathi liphela. Utshintsho oluvuselelekayo luvuthiwe, ukuphuculwa kwegridi kuyakhawuleza, kwaye imakethi iyanda ngokuthe chu. Sekunjalo ukuqina kwekhonkco lokubonelela, ukuhlaziywa kwetekhnoloji, kunye nokuthotyelwa kwemithetho yimingeni ephambili. Kubaboneleli bezixhobo, impumelelo ixhomekeke ekuthatheni amathuba avela ekudityanisweni okuhlaziyekayo, ukuphuculwa kwegridi, kunye nokuthengiswa kokugcinwa kwebhetri—ngexesha elinye kukhulisa ukuguquguquka kwekhonkco lokubonelela kunye nokuvelisa izinto ezintsha. Eli shishini lisiya kwikamva elisebenzayo, elikrelekrele, nelizinzileyo, elixhaswa ziinjongo zotshintsho lwamandla kwihlabathi liphela.
Umthombo: Ingxelo ye-IEA Electricity 2026, Izibalo zoRhwebo lweSiko leHlabathi, uPhando lweShishini, kunye noHlaziyo lwamva nje lweMarike (Matshi 2026); uMphathiswa weShishini noLwazi waseTshayina; amaZiko oPhando lweShishini
Ixesha leposi: Matshi-24-2026
