Njengoko ishishini lezixhobo zombane neze-power kwihlabathi liphela lingena kunyaka obalulekileyo we2026, utshintsho lolwakhiwo oluqhutywa kukutshintsha kwamandla avuselelekayo kunye nokuhlaziywa kwegridi kuyaqhubeka nokukhula. Ngelixa eli candelo lixhomekeke kukukhula okukhuthazwa kukwamkelwa kwamandla acocekileyo kunye nokunyuka kwemfuno yombane, likwajongene nemingeni ekhulayo evela kwimida yothungelwano lobonelelo, utshintsho lomthetho kunye nokuhlaziywa kwetekhnoloji. Ngokusebenzisa idatha yamva nje evela kwiNgxelo ye-IEA Electricity 2026, izibalo zorhwebo lwehlabathi kunye nophando lweshishini, eli nqaku lingena kwiindlela ezintsha,imingeni ephambili kunye neendlela zexesha elizayoukubumba eli shishini ngo-2026.
1. Ulawulo Oluhlaziyiweyo Luyadibanisa, Luqhubela Imfuno Yokuphuculwa Kwezixhobo Ezikumgangatho Ophezulu
Unyaka ka-2026 uphawula utshintsho olubalulekileyo kumxube wamandla wehlabathi: izixhobo ezivuselelekayo zidlule ngokusemthethweni amalahle njengomthombo wombane omkhulu kwihlabathi, ziphelisa ulawulo lwamalahle oluthathe phantse inkulungwane njengoko bekuqikelelwe yi-IEA. I-PV yelanga kunye namandla omoya xa zizonke zibangela phantse i-20% yokuveliswa kwamandla kwihlabathi liphela, apho i-PV yelanga ivela njengecandelo elikhula ngokukhawuleza—ukuveliswa kwayo minyaka le kufikelele kwi-620 TWh ngo-2025, ukunyuka okukhulu ukusuka kwi-450 TWh ngo-2024, kwaye kulindeleke ukuba kudlule amandla omoya, enyukliya kunye namanzi kwixesha elifutshane. Olu lwando lukhawulezayo alusekho kuphela kwimfuno yezixhobo ezisisiseko; endaweni yoko, luqhuba igagasi lokuphucula kwicandelo lezixhobo zamandla.
Ngokuchasene nokudibana okukhulu okuvuselelekayo, imfuno yezixhobo ezikrelekrele nezisebenza kakuhle iyakhula. Izixhobo zokudlulisa amandla avuselelekayo ezisebenza ngamandla aphezulu (i-HVDC), ezisombulula ingxaki yokudluliselwa kwamandla avuselelekayo okuhamba umgama omde, okulahlekelwa kancinci, zibone izinga lokukhula kwemarike yehlabathi elingaphezulu kwama-25% ngo-2026. Okwangoku, ii-inverters ezikrelekrele ezinezakhono zokulawula eziqhagamshelwe kwigridi kunye nemisebenzi yokulinganisa ukugcina amandla ziye zaba ziindlela eziqhelekileyo zeeprojekthi ezintsha zelanga nezomoya. Okuphawulekayo kukuba, ukuthunyelwa kwe-UHV yaseTshayina kunye nezixhobo zokudlulisa amandla eziguquguqukayo ze-DC kuye kwanda nge-81.5% unyaka nonyaka kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala zika-2026, zikhokela uthotho lwezixhobo eziphezulu zehlabathi.
2. Ukwanda kwemfuno kuyaqhubeka, ukuqina kwekhonkco lobonelelo kuba lukhuphiswano oluphambili
Imfuno yombane yehlabathi igcina indlela yayo yokukhula enamandla, inyuka nge-3.7% ngo-2026—phantse iphindwe kabini kunezinga lokukhula kwemfuno yamandla iyonke—iqhutywa kukufakelwa kombane kwimizi-mveliso, ukwandiswa kweziko ledatha le-AI, ukungena kwe-EV kunye nokunyuka kwemithwalo yokupholisa ehlotyeni. Uqoqosho olusakhulayo luhlala luyinjini ephambili yokukhula, lunegalelo eliphantse libe yi-80% yemfuno yombane omtsha kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2030, ngelixa uqoqosho oluphuhlileyo nalo lubona ukubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo ekusetyenzisweni kwamandla, kunye ne-AI kunye nemveliso ephezulu eziba ngabaqhubi abatsha bokukhula.
Oku kunyuka kwemfuno okuqhubekayo kuye kwaqinisa ngakumbi ukunikezelwa kwezinto ezibalulekileyo. Iitransformers, iiswitchgear kunye neentambo ze-high-voltage zihlala zinqongophele, kunye namaxesha okukhokela kwezinye iimveliso eziphambili afikelela kwiinyanga ezi-8-12. Abavelisi bandisa amandla okuvelisa, kodwa bajongene nemiqobo evela kukuguquguquka kwamaxabiso ezinto eziluhlaza—amaxabiso obhedu kunye ne-aluminium aguquguquka ngaphezu kwama-20% ngonyaka—kunye nokuphazamiseka kwezinto ngamanye amaxesha. Ukujongana noku, amashishini amaninzi akhawulezisa ulwakhiwo oluhlukeneyo lwe-"China+N", ehambisa inxalenye yamandla okuvelisa ukuya kuMzantsi-mpuma we-Asia ngelixa edibanisa uthotho oluphambili lokubonelela eTshayina, ukuphucula ukuqina ngokuchasene nemingcipheko yezopolitiko kunye neyemarike. Imakethi yehlabathi yezixhobo zokuhambisa nokuhambisa amandla ombane ixabisa i-USD 142.8 yezigidigidi ngo-2026, kunye neetransformers ezibalelwa kwi-38.2% yesabelo semarike, nto leyo egxininisa indawo ephambili yezinto eziphambili kushishino.
3. Ukugcinwa kwebhetri kuyavuthwa ngokwezorhwebo, kube yintsika ephambili yokuguquguquka kwegridi
Ukuhla okuqhubekayo kweendleko zokugcina iibhetri kuye kwakhawulezisa ukuhlanganiswa kwayo kwinkqubo yamandla. Emva kokuhla kwe-27% unyaka nonyaka ngo-2025, iindleko zokugcina iibhetri iiyure ezine zizinzile malunga ne-$78-80/MWh ngo-2026, kunye namaxabiso eebhetri zesikali seenkonzo asondela kwi-$80/kWh—phantse aphantsi ngama-50% kunango-2023. Le nzuzo yeendleko yenze iinkqubo zokugcina amandla ebhetri (i-BESS) zikhuphisane nezityalo ezivelisa igesi kwiimarike ezininzi, nto leyo eqhuba ukongezwa kwamandla okugcina amandla elanga kwihlabathi liphela ukugcina isantya sokukhula esiphezulu.
Ngaphaya kokwehla kweendleko, uphuhliso lwetekhnoloji luyandisa iimeko zokusetyenziswa kokugcinwa kwebhetri. Itekhnoloji yebhetri yeLithium iron phosphate (LFP) yamkelwe ngokubanzi, iphucula uxinano lwamandla kunye nokusebenza kakuhle kokuhlanganiswa kwenkqubo. Okwangoku, imfuno yezixhobo ezixhasayo ezifana neenkqubo zolawulo lwebhetri (BMS), ulawulo lwegridi ekrelekrele kunye nezixhobo zokulawula amaza zikhula ngokukhawuleza, njengoko zibalulekile ekusombululeni ukuguquguquka kunye nokuguquguquka kokuveliswa kwamandla avuselelekayo. I-IEA ikhomba ukuba ukugcinwa kwebhetri, kunye nokuphuculwa kwegridi, kuya kuba sisitshixo sokuvula amandla apheleleyo amandla avuselelekayo, kunye nomthamo wokugcina wehlabathi kulindeleke ukuba wande kakhulu ukuxhasa umgomo wamandla aphantsi okukhupha umbane angama-50% ngo-2030.
4. Ukwahlukana KweeNdlela Zengingqi, Abathumeli Bempahla Ngaphandle BaseAsia Bahlala Bekhokela
Imakethi yezixhobo zamandla zehlabathi ibonisa umahluko omkhulu kummandla ngo-2026. I-Asia isaqhubeka nokuba yeyona nto iphambili ekunikezelweni nasekufunweni kwezixhobo zehlabathi: Ukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zamandla eTshayina kunyuke nge-32.7% unyaka nonyaka kwiinyanga ezimbini zokuqala, kunye nemfuno enamandla yezinto ezine-voltage ephantsi kunye nee-transformers zokusasazwa kuMbindi Mpuma, eMntla Melika naseYurophu. Ukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zombane eJapan nako kunyuke nge-11.3% unyaka nonyaka, kuqhutywa zizixhobo ezinxulumene ne-semiconductor, kunye nokuthunyelwa okuqinileyo kumazwe aseMzantsi-mpuma Asia afana neTaiwan, iMalaysia neVietnam.
EYurophu naseMntla Melika, ukuphuculwa kwegridi kunye nokusasazwa kwamandla avuselelekayo zezona zinto ziphambili ezibangela imfuno yezixhobo. Isicwangciso se-EU esithi "Fit for 55" sikhawulezise ukupheliswa kwamandla asebenzisa amalahle, sanyusa imfuno yezixhobo zegridi ezikrelekrele kunye neenkqubo zokugcina amandla. I-US ixhamla kwiTyala loTyalo-mali (ITC) kunye nemigaqo-nkqubo enxulumene nalo, ekhokela ukusasazwa kwebhetri yehlabathi, kodwa ijongene neendleko eziphezulu zezixhobo ngenxa yemiyalelo yendawo kunye nemiqathango yorhwebo. Iimarike ezisakhulayo eMzantsi-mpuma Asia nase-Afrika ziba ziingongoma ezintsha zokukhula, kunye nemfuno ekhulayo yezixhobo zokuhambisa umbane ezisisiseko eziqhutywa kukukhula kwezixeko kunye nokufakelwa kombane, kodwa zithintelwe kukungabikho kotyalo-mali lwegridi kunye namandla obuchwephesha.
5. Imbonakalo yexesha elide: Utyalo-mali kwiGrid kunye noVuselelo lweTekhnoloji luqhuba uKhulo oluZinzileyo
I-IEA iqikelela ukuba amandla akhupha umbane kancinci—akhokelwa zizinto ezivuselelekayo kunye nenyukliya—aza kubalelwa kwi-50% yokuveliswa kwamandla kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2030, ukusuka kwi-42% ngo-2025, nto leyo efuna ukonyuka kwe-50% kutyalo-mali lwegridi yehlabathi ngonyaka ukusuka kwinqanaba langoku le-$400 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi. Olu tyalo-mali lukhulu luya kudala imfuno eqhubekayo yezixhobo zamandla ezisebenzayo, ezihambelanayo nezikrelekrele kumacandelo okuhlala, orhwebo kunye namashishini. Nangona kunjalo, eli shishini likwajongene nemingeni: ukwakhiwa kwegridi kusemva kophuhliso lwemithombo yamandla, kunye neeprojekthi zamandla avuselelekayo ezingaphezu kwe-250 GW, indawo yokugcina amandla kunye neziko ledatha ezilindele ukudityaniswa kwigridi kwihlabathi liphela.
Ukujonga phambili, ubuchwephesha buza kuba sisitshixo sokugqitha imiqobo. Ukwenziwa kwedijithali, ubukrelekrele kunye nokuhlaziya izityalo kuya kuba ziindlela eziphambili zokuphucula izixhobo—ubuchwepheshe begridi ekrelekrele, izixhobo zedijithali kunye nezixhobo ezingathathi cala kwikhabhoni ziya kusetyenziswa ngokubanzi. Okwangoku, ukuthotyelwa kwemigangatho yokusebenza kakuhle kwamandla ehlabathi kunye nemigaqo yokukhupha ikhabhoni kuya kuba yimfuneko yokufikelela kwimarike, kutyhala amashishini ukuba akhawulezise utshintsho lwemveliso eluhlaza kunye nokwakhiwa kwenkqubo yokubala i-carbon footprint.
Into ephambili yokuthatha
Unyaka ka-2026 ngunyaka obalulekileyo kushishino lwezixhobo zombane nezamandla kwihlabathi liphela: utshintsho lwamandla avuselelekayo lungene kwinqanaba elivuthiweyo, ukuphuculwa kwegridi kuyakhawuleza, kwaye imakethi iyanda ngokuthe chu, kodwa ukuqina kwekhonkco lokubonelela, ukuphindaphinda kwetekhnoloji kunye nokuthotyelwa kwemithetho kube yimingeni ephambili. Kubaboneleli bezixhobo, ukusebenzisa amathuba aziswa kukuhlanganiswa kwamandla avuselelekayo, ukuphuculwa kwegridi kunye nokuthengiswa kokugcinwa kwebhetri, ngelixa kuphucula ukuguquguquka kwekhonkco lokubonelela kunye nobuchule bokuvelisa ubuchwepheshe, kuya kuba ngundoqo ekufumaneni isabelo semarike. Eli shishini lisiya kwikamva elisebenzayo ngakumbi, elikrelekrele nelizinzileyo, kunye nokukhula kwexesha elide okuxhaswe ngokuqinileyo ziinjongo zotshintsho lwamandla kwihlabathi liphela.
Ixesha lokuthumela: Matshi-19-2026
