Ishishini leZixhobo zoMbane nezeMandla leHlabathi: Izinto eziHlaziyiweyo ziqhubela phambili ukukhula phakathi koHlaziyo lweGridi

Iindlela Eziphambili Zoshishino (2025-2026)

Icandelo lezixhobo zombane nezamandla kwihlabathi liphela litshintsha indlela ezisebenza ngayo izinto, nto leyo ekhokelela ekusetyenzisweni kwamandla avuselelekayo, ukunyuka kwemfuno yombane kunye nokuhlaziywa kwegridi. Ixhaswa yidatha egunyazisiweyo, ngezantsi kukho iindlela ezinokwenzeka nezisekelwe kwiinyani eziguqula imarike.

1. Izinto eziHlaziyiweyo ukuze zidlule amalahle njengoMthombo oPhambili wamandla ngo-2026

Ngokwengxelo ye-IEA's Electricity 2026, izixhobo ezivuselelekayo ziya kudlula amalahle njengomthombo wombane omkhulu kwihlabathi ngo-2026—ukuphelisa ulawulo lwamalahle oluphantse lube yiminyaka eli-100. I-PV yelanga kunye nomoya ziya kubalelwa kwi-20% yokuveliswa kwamandla kwihlabathi ngo-2026 (ukusuka kwi-15% ngo-2024), kunye ne-PV yelanga eza kudlula amandla omoya, enyukliya kunye namanzi kwiminyaka ezayo. Olu tshintsho luphakamisa imfuno yee-inverters ze-PV, ii-transformers, izixhobo ze-high-voltage kunye nezixhobo zokusasaza.

2. Ukukhula kweMfuno yoMbane erekhodiweyo kuqinisa uNikezelo lweeCandelo

Imfuno yombane kwihlabathi liphela iya kunyuka nge-3.3% (2025) kunye ne-3.7% (2026), iphindaphinde isantya sokukhula kwamandla iyonke, eqhutywa kukufakelwa kombane kwimizi-mveliso (60% evela e-Asia), ukwandiswa kweziko ledatha/i-AI kunye nokwamkelwa kwe-EV. Oku kunyuka kudale ukubonelela okuncinci kwiindawo ezibalulekileyo: ii-transformers, ii-switchgear, ii-circuit breakers kunye neentambo, nto leyo ekhuthaza abavelisi ukuba bandise imveliso.

3. Iindleko zokugcina iibhetri ziyawa, zinyusa imfuno yokuguquguquka kwegridi

Idatha yeBloombergNEF ibonisa ukuba iindleko zokugcina iibhetri iiyure ezine zehle ngama-27% ngonyaka ukuya kwi-$78/MWh ngo-2025 (ixabiso eliphantsi kakhulu), nto leyo ebangele ukongezwa kwe-87GW yomhlaba wonke kumandla okugcina amandla elanga kunyaka ophelileyo. Ukuhla kweendleko kuqhuba imfuno yolawulo lwegridi ekrelekrele, iinkqubo zolawulo lweebhetri (ii-BMS) kunye nezixhobo zozinzo ukuxhasa ukuveliswa okuguquguqukayo okuhlaziyekayo.

4. Abathumeli-mpahla base-Asia bakhokela ukukhula kweCandelo loThengiso lweZibonelelo kwihlabathi liphela

Idatha yezerhafu yasekuqaleni kowama-2026 ibonisa ukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zombane eziqinileyo ezivela e-Asia: Ukuthunyelwa kwezixhobo zombane eTshayina kunyuke nge-32.7% YoY (Jan-Feb), kunye ne-UHV kunye nezixhobo zokudlulisa ze-DC eziguquguqukayo zinyuka nge-81.5%. Imfuno yehlabathi yezinto ezine-voltage ephantsi kunye nee-transformers zokusasazwa isaqhubeka inamandla kulo lonke elaseMbindi Mpuma, eMntla Melika naseYurophu, kunye neemeko ezingathandekiyo ezivela kwiindleko zezinto eziluhlaza kunye nezothutho.

5. Imbono Yexesha Elide: Utyalo-mali lweGrid luza kukhuthaza ukukhula okuzinzileyo

I-IEA iqikelela ukuba amandla akhupha umbane omncinci aza kufikelela kwi-50% yokuveliswa kwamandla kwihlabathi liphela ngo-2030 (ukusuka kwi-42% ngo-2025), nto leyo efuna utyalo-mali olukhulu lwegridi kunye nogcino. Oku kudala imfuno eqhubekayo yezixhobo zombane ezisebenzayo nezihambelanayo kumacandelo okuhlala, orhwebo kunye namashishini.

Ingongoma ephambili: Icandelo lezixhobo zombane lilungele ukukhula okuzinzileyo ngo-2026, okukhuthazwa lutshintsho oluhlaziyekayo kunye nokuphuculwa kwegridi. Ababoneleli abagxile kwizisombululo ezisebenzayo, ezikrelekrele nezizinzileyo baya kubamba amathuba amaninzi emarike.
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Ngendlela, yonke idatha ifunyenwe kwiNgxelo ye-IEA Electricity 2026 kunye nedatha yorhwebo lwezerhafu lwehlabathi.